Over the last few years, there have been numerous news reports about the decline of Global Sea Ice. Most notably, reports have focused on Arctic Sea Ice and its steady decline. Global Warm...er, Climate Change advocates have warned that Arctic Sea Ice will soon be completely gone leaving an open Arctic Sea during the Arctic Summer.
However, recent data came out that implies otherwise. Below are some key excerpts.
Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close.
Ice levels had been tracking lower throughout much of 2008, but rapidly recovered in the last quarter. In fact, the rate of increase from September onward is the fastest rate of change on record, either upwards or downwards.
In my opinion, the fact that this rapid recovery is faster than any decline makes me question the statements about decreasing Global Sea Ice.
Each year, millions of square kilometers of sea ice melt and refreeze. However, the mean ice anomaly -- defined as the seasonally-adjusted difference between the current value and the average from 1979-2000, varies much more slowly. That anomaly now stands at just under zero, a value identical to one recorded at the end of 1979, the year satellite record-keeping began.
Could it be possible that changes to Global Sea Ice are cyclical? If Global Warming, aka Climate Change, is accelerating then why would the level of Global Sea Ice be back to the same level it was when satellite record- keeping began? Beyond that, how would these changes in Global Sea Ice affect ocean levels?
Sea ice is floating and, unlike the massive ice sheets anchored to bedrock in Greenland and Antarctica, doesn't affect ocean levels. However, due to its transient nature, sea ice responds much faster to changes in temperature or precipitation and is therefore a useful barometer of changing conditions.
Earlier this year, predictions were rife that the North Pole could melt entirely in 2008. Instead, the Arctic ice saw a substantial recovery. Bill Chapman, a researcher with the UIUC's Arctic Center, tells DailyTech this was due in part to colder temperatures in the region. Chapman says wind patterns have also been weaker this year. Strong winds can slow ice formation as well as forcing ice into warmer waters where it will melt.
Why were predictions so wrong? Researchers had expected the newer sea ice, which is thinner, to be less resilient and melt easier. Instead, the thinner ice had less snow cover to insulate it from the bitterly cold air, and therefore grew much faster than expected, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
What I find refreshing about the closing paragraph is that it admits that researchers don't completely understand climate variables.
If researchers held incorrect beliefs about the dynamics of Sea Ice, then those same beliefs and assumptions would've been reflected in Global Climate Models. I still firmly believe that we don't have enough data nor do we have a deep enough understanding of climate dynamics to make sweeping "the argument is settled" statements about Global Warming or Climate Change. However, as we continue to learn, as evidenced in this study, these new assumptions can be used to further refine Climate Models.
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