Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Winter Forecast 2009-2010

10-14-2009 UPDATE: Accuweather's Joe Bastardi released his updated winter forecast. See it here.

UPDATE: Joe was recently interviewed and wrote an open letter to Accuweather viewers about Global Warming/Climate Change. Find out more.

Accuweather's Chief Meteorologist and Expert Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi has released an early prediction for this coming winter. In fact, he believes that this winter will be the "Snowiest in Over 5 Years NYC to D.C.". If you've read my blog long enough you know I really respect Joe Bastardi's forecasting skills and insights. I firmly believe he is one of the best forecasters out there. You can watch the interview with Joe or read some highlights from the article below.



Parts of the country have had a cool summer:

This summer has been unusually cool across the Northeast, northern Plains and parts of the West. Places like New York City and Philadelphia, which are typically warm and humid this time of year, have had relatively cool and wet weather instead.
Has there been one single factor causing this? Joe says no.
While no single factor is taking responsibility for the unusually cool weather, the combination of El Niño and worldwide volcanic activity over the past six to nine months may have played a role in causing this trend. The El Niño is a global atmospheric event that takes place over the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean. The warming of the waters in that area can result in pattern changes globally, having a major effect on the weather across the United Sates, especially during the winter months.
This is just the summer. Is there really a possible connection between a cool summer and a snowy winter?
In years past, cooler summers have been followed by harsh winters. Temperatures in New York City did not top 85 degrees in June this year. There have only been three other times in recorded history when New York City failed to reach 85 in June. In each of those instances, snowy winters followed.
Click on image for larger image.

Chicago had 12 days in June when temperatures did not exceed 70 degrees. This has happened only one other time in 1969. That year was followed by a snowy winter as well.
It appears there could be a precedent for this type of weather patter. Joe often refers to analog years when making seasonal forecasts. He believes, as do I, that previous patterns and outcomes can often predict what will happen. In this case, cool summer followed by a snowy winter.

The middle part of the article covers what we might expect during the remaining part of the summer. Mainly, the areas experiencing a cool summer now will warm up some before cool weather returns. The other areas of the country will continue to experience similar weather to what they've had already this summer. Later, the Southeast and Gulf coasts should be wary of quick forming tropical systems.

Anyway, focusing back on the winter. Joe says:
The areas that will be hit hardest this winter by cold, snowy weather will be from New England through the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, including North Carolina. Areas from New York City to Raleigh have gotten by the past two years with very little snowfall. This year these areas could end up with above-normal snowfall.
Click on image for larger image.

While some parts of the Appalachians did have harsh winter weather in the form of ice last year, this winter could be one of the snowiest since 2002-03, when up to 80 inches fell in many places. Snowfall totals this year could reach between 50 and 100 inches. Last winter, the usage of salt was way up due to the number of ice storms. Salt supplies could be compromised again this year for state and local road crews that battle the winter weather. On the other hand, ski resorts could have a great year with plenty of powder for skiers.

Bastardi adds that the overall weather pattern that has prevailed this summer is pointing to a winter very similar to that of 2002-03, when major cities on the East Coast had above-average snowfall. Expert Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity points out that in February of 2003, a major snowstorm paralyzed much of the Interstate 95 corridor, including New York City and Philadelphia. During the storm, airports were closed, roads were impassable, roofs collapsed and some schools were closed for a week, causing summer vacations to start late.

The storm track that could develop this year will bring storms up the Eastern Seaboard. This type of storm track will differ from that of the past two years, when storms tended to take a track farther west from Texas into the Great Lakes. That track into the Great Lakes brought unseasonably mild weather to the major East Coast cities, keeping them on the more rainy side of the storms. The track this year right along the Eastern Seaboard would put the major cities on the cold, wintry side of the storms.

A colder, snowier winter would mean an increase in energy bills, added snow removal efforts, more travel delays and extended school closures.

The Midwest and central Plains, which have been hit hard the past two winters, may end up with a lack of snowfall this year. Places like Chicago, Omaha, Minneapolis and Kansas City may have below-normal snowfall and could even average a bit milder than past years.

A warm and somewhat dry weather pattern is expected from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. The typical barrage of winter storms that hit Seattle and Portland may not occur this winter and lead to below-normal precipitation.

The below-normal precipitation predicted for the Pacific Northwest could have "extended and severe ramifications" on the economy in a region that relies heavily on winter precipitation, according to Expert Senior Meteorologist Ken Reeves.

"A less stormy track through the Pacific Northwest, while on the surface may seem like a good thing, it is actually the opposite," Reeves said. "Winter snows supply water to the region throughout the year and also supply a significant portion of their power needs. About 70 percent of electric power generation in the Northwest comes from hydro sources."

The Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia, from Feb. 12 to 28 could be impacted by the lack of snow and cold weather this winter.

A storm track into California and the Southwest means near-normal rainfall for Southern California. While some people across Southern California fear the El Niño will bring harsh storms to the region, the fading of the El Niño will lessen that risk and provide near-normal rainfall.


Of course, none of us will know how this coming winter will really be until it gets here. Personally, I would like to see some more snow and cold this year. We really haven't had decent snow (for the Charlotte, NC metro area) in 2-3 years.

I'm hoping Joe's right.

202 comments:

  1. I worked with Joe for many years, and he is certainly extremely dedicated to his job. I've never been a long-range forecaster--it's a difficult job.

    Living in Pennsylvania and having had very little snow last year, I hope he's right as well.

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  3. keep the snow in alaska polar bears like it i dont lol keep safe rob

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  4. I've spoken with a few social service agencies and they're woefully unprepared.

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  5. Bring on the snow!! Us Northerners like it! Canadians that is!

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  6. I hate snow, but I love the cold. I want a dry and cold winter in Chicago. A max of 25 inches of snow and an average temp in mid 10s to upper single digits would be nice. It needs to be cold enough for the ponds to freeze over for some pond hockey. The only thing that makes me madder than a lot of snow is mild temperatures.

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  7. Well...you ought to live in the Carolinas. Generally, no snow, just occassional sleet and, every few years, a damaging ice storm.

    But, we can play golf and ride our bikes in shirt sleeves at least once or twice in a January warm shot.

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  8. My wife and I always wonder at how forecasters on TV and in print totally ignore the Central Pacific Coast from Big Sur to Portland. The TV guys usually stand in front of the Bay Area and here we have the print forecaster not even mentioning the High Sierra, the San Francisco Bay area, Sacramento, Reno, etc. Guess that's why I just renewed by subscription to WaetherUnderground.com for $5 a year.

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  9. i live in DC. 45 degrees and wet all the time, sucks more than anything. if we have a cold and snowy winter, that would be awsome. its anything but 45 and rainy. im 15 and love the snow, and snowboarding. last year we had practically no snow. if it does stay cold and snowy, i can set up some nice little rails and jumps in my front yard.

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  10. I saw Joe B on tv the other day when he predicted the west coast hurricane would go west out to sea, but it nailed the Baja like it was forecasted to do What an idiotic thing to do, every model said NW into the Baja! That guy is a drama queen.

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  11. Joe's forecast is informative and eye-opening.

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  12. i sure hopoe joe is right, i love to snowmobile and if he is right about all the snow and cold, its gonna be an awesome winter.if hes wrong ill be pissed.

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  13. Look on the bright side of the forecast; at least there will be plenty of snow for skiing! It will also be a helping hand for the winter tourist lodges in the northeastern states, as well as Ontario and Quebec.
    Bring on the POW!
    As for the Olympics in Whistler and other parts of the province, you'll be hard-pressed to find a lack of snow in the area.
    In short, I'm glad Joe Bastardi's winter forecast is so readily available.

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  14. I bought a bad a** snow blower last year and gave it a good workout here in CT. I actually like to drive around in the meanest snow storms and love to clear my walkways and driveway. It's really beautiful. Some may think I am nuts but, bring it on!!! I want to let my snowblower have it again this year!

    sk

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  15. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  16. you snow bunnies in the south make me puke. I live in NJ and you can have ALL the snow. I HATE it.

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  17. I hope he is wrong and it dumps on the PNW. You people out on the east coast don't need the snow with your tiny mountains anyway. Lets get some snow where some real skiing/ snowboarding is to be done.

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  18. I live in NY and I really wana see many snow stom, NOR EASTER, a Bizzard or some kind of storm that bring a lot of snow for most of this winter.

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  19. you go Joe. I hope his right. I live in NY

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  20. Thanks for all the comments!

    I know it depends on where you live as to how you view snow events and cold weather in general. I do hope Joe is right for the Carolinas at least.

    Of interest You need to check out the interview and open letter Joe had about Global Warming (see link in the UPDATE section at the top of the post.)

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  21. YEAH!!! I AGREE WITH ANONYMOUS=

    My wife and I always wonder at how forecasters on TV and in print totally ignore the Central Pacific Coast from Big Sur to Portland. The TV guys usually stand in front of the Bay Area and here we have the print forecaster not even mentioning the High Sierra, the San Francisco Bay area, Sacramento, Reno, etc. Guess that's why I just renewed by subscription to WaetherUnderground.com for $5 a year.

    WHERES THE INFO ON LOKE CALIFORNIA/CENTRAL,SOUTHERN ETC.SICK OF HEARING BOUT NOTHIN BUT EAST COAST BLA BLA BLA.IS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GONNA GET SOME
    V E R Y NEEDED RAIN/SNOW THIS 09/2010 WINTER???
    COME ON MR KNOW IT ALL METEOROLIGISTS,KICK DOWN SOME CALI INFO.PLEASE.
    GOD BLESSS,

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  22. As much as we do not like to shovel snow, those of us in the Great Lakes region need it. We are coming off of nearly a decade of low precipitation, and the ground water needs to be replentished as do the Great Lakes themselves. Bring on the snow!

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  23. Snow is a burden both to resources and health of people in general due to the inherent dangers of it in quantity on roads, not to mention missing work, dangers on highways, lost days of school. It's nothing for any sane person to wish for. The cold and snow kills more people than many diseases, it's a threat, a saying in the south "you don't have to brush humidity off your car nor does humidity make you late for work." Indeed. Heat can kill too but usually only for people who don't properly hydrate, it's dangers are incredibly slim considering the many posed by cold and snow, just about miniscule.

    Right as Joe often is we should all hope for mild winters for the general safety and livelihoods of the masses. Doing so otherwise is equivalent of wishing pain, misfortune, and suffering for the masses.

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  24. Hi what is it going to be like in southeast NY???

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  25. Sounds good to me all except the midwest having less snow and milder weather. I am a snowboarder wanting as much snow as possible in wisconsin and the UP

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  26. IM FROM MASON CITY IOWA WE LOVE OUR SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT ON!!! GIVE MY NEW CHEVY TRUCK WITH THE PLOW A WORKOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!! SNOW NOW PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  27. CA isn't allowed to have snow. Nancy Pelosi might cry

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  28. I am from Indianapolis, IN. THe past few winters have been really mild and we always seemed to miss out on the big snows. I just wonder what this year is going to be for us. We need a good one for once.

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  29. I live in the metropolitan area of D.C. and these past winters have been skimpy, I hope that this coming winter is better than those past.

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  30. I think for southwest, we're going to have a very warm and quite dry winter. If any moisture comes our way (four corners states) will have warm rain. Mainly temps in the 80s for much of Fall.
    Why am I saying this? El Nino will be "worked on" either by our airforce or an enemy nation's weather mod programs. Most likely its our own seceret government's weather mod program that will both dimish the effects of El Nino, and redirect the effect away from the 4 corners region and southwest. Dry up our nation's farms so that we are more beholded to dependance of foreign goods! No food or energy indipendance for US middle class. This is for the enslaving of the US middle class. Read it and weep. Game over for us!

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  31. I thought I could move to Alaska to garrenty snow. Not the case! Irony is the main device destroying our weather patterns is HAARP in Alaska!

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  32. i live in a small town in northern seattle, and because we are so close to a lake we never see snow. with the exceptions of 08-09 and 06-07 winters, being a kid here sucks a**. i'm 16 and i get 2 1/2 weeks off school for christmas and all i want to do is get out and have fun in the snow that is supposed to be there! i hope the pacific northwest does actually have another cold, "harsh" winter with lots and lots of snow in large quantities as well as 20 degrees below freezing cold spells. enough snow for me to pull my sled on the back of my atv would be extremely nice

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  33. The Chicago area has had two brutal Winters back to back (Last Winter didn't seem to end). We didn't even really have Summer this year. I went to a roof party in Chicago for the 4th of July the high temp was 65 for the day! Now our Autumn is wet and cold. Frankly, it's becoming depressing. I am certainly ready for a mild Winter!

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  34. I'm not totally sold on the idea of a rough Winter just yet for the Eastern US. I think that Joe has some solid evidence to work with, ie. the setup is similar to the 02-03 Winter. But in my past experience, the patterns during the month of November offer some clues as to where the coming Winter is headed. It certainly did last Winter and in 07-08 - at least here in the DC area.

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  35. Minnesota needs to get HAMMERED this year with snow.. we are so due for a normal winter. bring on the below 0 temps too!

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  36. I love the changing of seasons, guess thats why I live in the East Coast, not a big snow fan but guess staying home do to bad weather isnt that bad...lol..and the fashion is definitely better in the fall/winter ;-)

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  37. I hope he is right too!! I used to hate winters, now I ask for the worst of them so I can get out on the slopes and enjoy!!! Too all you ski and boarding jockeys,enjoy and good luck!!

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  38. SNOW SNOW SNOW - Chicago is going to get HAMMERED with SNOW again this Winter.

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  39. NY needs snow! lETS HOPE HES RIGHT!

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  40. im from D.C. and i am hoping that joe is right with the snow that we are gonna get. i wanna go snowboarding and get days off of school. it better snow a lot here !!!!

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  41. My German Shepherd agrees with it being a cold winter in the Dallas-Fort Worth area this coming year. For the very first time in her six year life she has grown additional hair on her shoulders.

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  42. To "Image Wrangler": I would like to shake your hand and give you a gold medal. Finally, someone to "tell it like it is" - that snow is indeed a dangerous, expensive nuisance. All those who are wishing for snow should be aware that your wish would bring death, pain and suffering for others. Please move to some snow-ridden city in Canada, and keep your "snow wishes" far away from us!!

    And who is saying that the Great Lakes area needs snow? Have you been living under a rock? Here in Chicago, we are running a dangerously excessive rain surplus. We need snow like we need a hole in the head.

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  43. Hoping and Wishing for FRIGID AND SNOWY winters like it was in the 1800s here in Baltimore! I love the cold and the snow bring it on mother nature =)

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  44. i live near wisconsin and it better snow soon cause my snowmobile is ready does anyone know when it will snow in chicago?

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  45. "Anonymous said...
    I hate snow, but I love the cold. I want a dry and cold winter in Chicago. A max of 25 inches of snow and an average temp in mid 10s to upper single digits would be nice. It needs to be cold enough for the ponds to freeze over for some pond hockey. The only thing that makes me madder than a lot of snow is mild temperatures."

    You must be fat

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  46. We need some snow in chicago after leaving europe 5 years ago I havent seen enough snow!

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  47. I hope we have a blizzard like 1993 we had 50 inches of snow in the smokey mountians of Tennessee above 6000 foot .

    22 Inches of snow in chattanooga
    17 inches Birmingham, AL
    30 miles North of Atanta georgia had 18 inches of snow

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  48. I've already got my pellets so I'm ready for what ever mother nature throws at the Maryland area. I lived in Florida for 12 years and missed the snow. I'm hoping for a heavy snow year.

    Lets play Ben Franklin. Plan for he worst. Hope for the best, then see what happens.

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  49. Richmond is the black hole of weather. It almost always seems to go around unless the conditions are just right and then its a devistating hit. It would be really nice to see a good covering of snow. Something to make it worth the air being so cold.

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  50. Hoping for a white Christmas!! Haven't had one since the early 2000-2003 in the New York, New Jersey Metro Area. All of the other Christmas's have been mild and or rainy or beautiful sunshine and it doesn't seem like Christmas at all!!

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  51. I live in Fort Smith Arkansas and we hardly ever see snow!! I hope we get some this year. Lay off with the ice and let it snow for a change!

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  52. Yeah, right... Been watching the central mid-west? I've lived here for 50 years and it's never been this FUBAR. Shirtsleeves my hindquarter! Its been a good 20 degrees below norm for about three weeks. Today? 36 degrees below normal... yeah, you're good. Good at missing the mark.

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  53. What a dud this winter is turning out to be. I live in southern CT and all the weather forecasters were talking about a very snowy and very cold winter. The temps have seemed to be about average and the snow has been miniscule. I love snow, and I was finally looking forward to a snowy winter, but if the 2-week forecast holds out, it looks like January 2010 will be one of the least snowy on record. Oh well.

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  54. Im from Florida now living in NYC. Today i was walking around with a short sleeve shirt on while everyone else seem to be bundled up for the artic. Reminder: IM FROM MIAMI.I was excited to experience my first ever winter and with the exception of a few days, its as cold here as it is in north Florida. Their has been more rainy days then snow days. So Hope everyone enjoys summer because soon it will be year round.

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  55. Gene,Joe Bastardi is a salesman not a weatherman let me tell you this guy has blown the forecast in NYC this will be the fifth year the fifth year he and accuweather are a joke save your money dont waste it on this site.

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  56. Who are you addressing? No "Gene" has left a comment.

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  57. Well I wonder how the nay sayers feel now.

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  58. I actually like to drive around in the meanest snow storms and love to clear my walkways and driveway. It's really beautiful. Some may think I am nuts but, bring it on!!! I want to let my snowblower have it again this year!
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  59. You have done a marvelous job by exploring this subject with such an honesty and depth. Thanks for sharing it with us!

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  60. Isn't it always like the weather man to get it wrong! Good thing you get paid a lot of money to make a guess. Looks like I'll just wear my Yaktrax all year long, just to be safe.

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  61. This is nice information that this summer has been unusually cool across the Northeast, northern Plains and parts of the West.

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  62. The winter forecast of 2009-2010 is some thing which is good fro knowledge and I think this is some thing that peoples needs to get know about because it can help them in many ways.

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  63. This is something else. Lets see what the prediction is for 2011. Good job.

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