Hurricane Season 2007

At the end of last week, the official 2007 Hurricane Season forecasts started coming out in full force. In my opinion, there is one forecast I pay particular attention to. That forecast is the one that comes from Joe Bastardi at Accuweather. He's a Senior forecaster with Accuweather and you've probably seen or heard him on major tv and radio news outlets, especially when hurricanes threaten. So how does his forecast look for 2007? The headline composite should give you a clue:

Florida in the Bull’s Eye this Hurricane Season
"We’re in for a Rough Year," Says AccuWeather.com’s Bastardi

As you well know, though, the devil is in the details. The first two paragraphs sum things up pretty well:

(State College, PA - May 8, 2007) - AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi and his team expect this season’s hurricanes and tropical storms to pose a far greater threat to lives and property than last year’s, with significantly more storms striking the US.

In the AccuWeather.com 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast released today, Bastardi warns that six or seven storms will strike the US coast. This includes the possibility of multiple strikes by the same storm, such as the way Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina – both extreme examples – struck Florida before later striking the US Gulf Coast. The majority of these landfalls are projected for the Gulf Coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Cape Hatteras, NC, with the center of the bull’s eye on Florida.

If the forecast verifies, then we'll have a significantly different Hurricane Season this year than we had last year. Now, why is this season going to be different. Mr. Bastardi touches on that:

Bastardi described the climatological patterns that he and his team expect to have an impact on this year’s hurricane season, including:

• The occurrence of a weak La Niña – a formation of cooler–than–normal Pacific waters – in the wake of an El Niño at the end of last year
• The current warm–water cycle that is occurring in the area of the Atlantic that is a breeding ground for hurricanes, as well as forecast precipitation and air pressure patterns expected during hurricane season
• How spring is evolving across the North American continent
• How summer is projected to evolve across the US
• Forecasted air pressure oscillations over the Pacific, and diminished dry air over the tropical Atlantic
  

Many of the climatological patterns currently occurring or projected for this hurricane season are similar to those of the 1930s through the 1950s, which was a period marked by frenzied hurricane activity.

If you've read my blog long enough, you know what's coming here. Note Joe's reference to historical observed cycles. Over the years, I've read a lot of Joe's writings. He appears to be a big believer in the cyclicality of weather and climate patterns. Looking at the available data, I would agree. Our climate appears to be cyclical in nature, so what has happened in the past will very likely happen again. But...back to the topic at hand.

Ken Reeves, Director of Forecast Operations added a very important qualifying points regarding the forecasting of something as complex as hurricane activity:

"It is true that one of the patterns we are accounting for is the formation of a La Niña following the recent El Niño, but too often, the impact of a La Niña – or an El Niño – on a hurricane season is oversimplified. It is just one of many patterns that needs to be examined when predicting a hurricane season, and often not the most important one."

...The heightened threat we foresee for Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast could have significant implications for the areas still recovering from the devastation wrought by the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005."

...Those living farther up the East Coast should by no means let down their guard. While the threat there is lower than last year, ‘less risk’ does not mean ‘no risk.’ We expect at least one storm will threaten these areas."

Since I live in the Carolinas, I will take Ken Reeves final quote to heart, as we all should when it comes to severe weather events:

Overall, we will see more powerful storms across the board than we did last year. We will not get anywhere near the amount of storms that we did in 2005, but it is the intensity of the storms we do get that will be of major concern. It goes without saying that if I were living along the Gulf Coast, Florida, or the Carolinas, I would do all I could to make sure that my family and I were prepared for the possibility of a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. This is always prudent, but it is especially so during times such as this season, when we are likely to see above-normal storm activity.

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Technorati: Hurricane Season 2007, hurricanes, Joe Bastardi

Winning on Wednesday - Bucking the Standard

Work is still a bear, so any posts on my site seem to be more and more infrequent. That's not intentional at all...I guess merely just a function of how busy I am these days.

If you've read my Winning on Wednesday posts over time, you'll quickly realize how much I like Greg Laurie's sermons and tidbits. I guess the main reason behind that is his ability to state things in a way that's easy to understand. Also, he's not shy about his past and is very open about the background from which he came. To me, this makes him real. As you can guess by now, this week's post will highlight something Greg Laurie said in a sermon. As I've stated before, I listen to his "A New Beginning" podcasts as I travel or walk. It's a great way to learn something new and not have to meet a radio schedule.

I've gotten quite behind on the podcasts recently and I've been trying to catch up. A week or so ago I was listening to one of them and Greg stated the following:

"If we have lowered our standards to extend our reach, we have defeated our purpose."

That is a pretty powerful statement. To give you context, Greg was speaking about churches that continue to lower their standards under the guise of "reaching the lost". He also used this to reference those Christians that put themselves in situations where they may be tempted to sin "in order to see how the sinful live and attempt to reach out to them". I agree wholeheartedly.

The standard that we as Christians are called to live by is a higher standard. That standard is the life of Jesus. We should not be bringing our standard down to meet the world, we should be bringing the world to meet The Standard -- Jesus.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we should ban contemporary music from churches, ask women to be silent, remove all media (of course not!), etc. These are all effective tools we can use to reach others.

So, what's the point? Let me ask you a question. How many churches have you heard or seen where the message is more of a pep talk, motivational speech or the like, instead of depending on the Truth of God's Word to reach people? I could name several, but that wouldn't serve a positive purpose. I've seen several where the whole "sermon" is nothing more than a motivational speech intended to "pump up" the listeners. There was no reference to scripture, no reference to God, etc. The argument I have heard is roughly this:

We try not to use church type words, or mention bible verses and God so much so we'll appeal to a broader audience. But, we still stick to the same principles of living a good life, treating others like you want to be treated, donating time and money to help others, etc...

There's only one problem with that. It strays from the basic, important message we are to reach others with. Summed up from Romans:

Romans 3:23 - “For all have sinned, and fall short of the glory of God.”

Romans 5:8 - “But God demonstrates His love toward us, in that, while we were still sinners, Christ died for us.”

Romans 6:23 - “For the wages of sin is death, but the gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord.”

Romans 10:9-10 - “That if you confess with your mouth the Lord Jesus and believe in your heart that God has raised Him from the dead, you will be saved. For with the heart one believes unto righteousness, and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation."

That's the Standard.

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Technorati: Winning on Wednesday